Posted on 28 November 2006 by Mihai Moscovici
Moldova’s making first steps back… toward Russia
It seems Moldova will come back into Russian “armsâ€. But probably Moldova never left Russian “arms†and the pro-European policy was just a trick of the Moldovan Communist party in order to be re-elected in March 2005.
First, Putin used the recent CIS summit in Minsk to make his declaration about lifting the ban on wine and meat imports from Moldova, then he agreed to resume discussions on the situation around Transnistria, a breakaway region in Moldova.
What are the causes that changed Putin’s view over Moldova? Certainly, Moldova made several regressions in its policy toward Russia and is trying to run away from the advices of the European Union and the US.
Second, Moldova and Russia still cannot agree over the price for gas in 2007. However, the agreement will be made as soon as Russia will become the primary orientation of the Moldovan foreign policy.
Now, the question is, “Will Moldova become the second Belarus in Europe?â€
Later add: Here is the secret deal - Moldova accepts Russia to become a member of the WTO; in change, Russia lifts the ban for Moldovan wine to its market.
Photo: Globalicious! / rogiro
November 29th, 2006 at 11:08 am
[...] Mihai Moscovici wonders if, following the Minsk CIS Summit, Moldova may turn into Europe’s next Belarus. Veronica Khokhlova [...]
November 30th, 2006 at 3:43 am
What did West do for Moldova not to fall back to Russian arms? What did West do to help this impoverished country? Maybe western government offered Moldova financial help pay for gas? Or maybe they opened markets for key Moldovan products, especially wine? Or maybe they introduced visa-free border regime and let Moldovans be part of EU job market?
The answer to all of these questions is NO. So what would western democracies expect? Do they indeed think that Moldova would confront Russia alone while Moldova’s people are out of work and freezing because they cannot afford to pay energy bill?
November 30th, 2006 at 3:58 am
Serg: “What did West do for Moldova not to fall back to Russian arms? What did West do to help this impoverished country? Maybe western government offered Moldova financial help pay for gas? Or maybe they opened markets for key Moldovan products, especially wine? Or maybe they introduced visa-free border regime and let Moldovans be part of EU job market?”
And what did we do in Moldova to demonstrate our true aspirations to become members of EU family? Did we carry out any effective reforms either in economics or in public administration? Did we reduced corruption? Did we strengthen civil liberties?
Have we understood the value of democratic values? Do we truly beleive in all those values “of Europe” that we want to be part of?..
November 30th, 2006 at 4:01 am
Sorry for mistake in a previous comment. Posted it in a little hurry…
November 30th, 2006 at 4:13 am
“And what did we do in Moldova to demonstrate our true aspirations to become members of EU family? Did we carry out any effective reforms either in economics or in public administration? Did we reduced corruption? Did we strengthen civil liberties?
Have we understood the value of democratic values? Do we truly beleive in all those values “of Europe” that we want to be part of?.. ”
”
Yes we have some progress in this area, of course it does not come fast and easy. However we got next to nothing in exchange, even no encouragement to continue reforms to match EU standards.
EU has clearly indicated that it does not want to accept Moldova in the Union in foreseeable future. And visa regime will not be changed in the next 5 years at least. So what should we do during all these years? Should we die of hunger caused by Russian sanctions singing songs about beloved EU?
I do not want second Georgia in my country, I’ve been there. I dont want my grandma to live on 8 USD pention and I dont wanna pay to enter elevator in Chisinau.
Going back to Russia is not Moldova’s preferred choice, but it is Western choice for Moldova. It is West who ceded Moldova to Russia just as they did with Baltic countries in 1940. And it is West who should be blamed for the nowadays tragedy of people in Moldova and for the tragedy of divided Romanian nation. I cannot put any blame on Moldovans just for desire to survive.
November 30th, 2006 at 4:21 am
BTW, I dont know if Moldova becomes next Belarus, but I sincerely wish that Moldova achieves at least Belarussian living standards in the next 3-5 years.
November 30th, 2006 at 8:40 am
Serg: “Yes we have some progress in this area, of course it does not come fast and easy. However we got next to nothing in exchange, even no encouragement to continue reforms to match EU standards.
EU has clearly indicated that it does not want to accept Moldova in the Union in foreseeable future. And visa regime will not be changed in the next 5 years at least. So what should we do during all these years?”
This is why we’re still at the same place where we were several years ago. From your words it looks like: “Show us the prospects of becoming EU members and then we will do our best in building a democratic civil society. If you don’t, then why should we do all these tiresome efforts? What for?…”
Untill we change the attitude we’ll be exactly where we are now. We need the changes in our society, in our state, we need reforms, we need to promote the democratic values not just for becoming EU members. We need them for becoming a modern prosperous state that respects its own citizens. Norway is not an EU member. And doesn’t want to be…
We should demonstrate that we want to the EU not because it’s rich (and for me that seems to be the only reason for becoming EU members for a vast majority of Moldovans) but because we really share its values and principles. And should do this either with EU support or without it. Because WE need it, not the EU…
December 1st, 2006 at 12:20 am
Serg and Alexei, I believe first of all that Moldova must determine its long-term priorities. Our country cannot live following the step-by-step strategy. The Baltic States have what they have because they managed to orient their policy into a long-term perspective of development. Right after the USSR collapsed, the Baltic States made their definitive choice toward EU.
Moldova still is not decided what to do and how to proceed. Up to 2001, I do not remember any public discussion about the mainstream of Moldovan foreign policy. The communist party won mainly because it promised to integrate Moldova in the Union of Russia-Belarus. Later, in 2005, the same party changed its platform and said it will lead Moldova toward European Union.
We are almost in 2007 and it seems that Moldovan government follows the actual stream and thinks just one step ahead, without considering the turn the future can bring.
Yes, Moldova is a small country and depends of the bigger powers. Yet, the old saying is that nobody can catch two rabbits at once. The same with Moldova, it cannot play for two masters at the same time.
I prefer Moldova will choose to follow the European Union integration. In a long-term perspective this is the best choice for Moldova. The history demonstrates that no nation was able to live prosperously under the Russian rule, the same during the Russian empire and during the Soviet Union regime.
December 1st, 2006 at 12:56 am
“Untill we change the attitude we’ll be exactly where we are now. We need the changes in our society, in our state, we need reforms, we need to promote the democratic values not just for becoming EU members. We need them for becoming a modern prosperous state that respects its own citizens. Norway is not an EU member. And doesn’t want to be…”
Yes, I agree, but besides that there is a more important thing - we need to become well off country. There will never be anything like true democracy in a country where half of population lives on $100/month and people’s votes can be bought just for $10 pension increase.
And since EU refuses to help us - we have no choice than to align with Russia. Otherwise we have no future at all. So let’s forget about EU for 20 years at least and build our own country. It will depend just on EU whether we build it with EU or with Russia. I wanna follow european stream … BUT “show me the money!”. I’m sick and tired of tens of so called “experts” from EU doing nothing except talking bullshit about lack of democracy and freedom as if we dont know it already.
So for now - I believe we should align with Russia to get our economy in order and solve Transnistria problem. EU and US cannot solve it neither in Moldova nor in Georgia, keys for the solution are in Moscow and we’d better have good relations with Kremlin.
Later when we live better we’ll think about EU and whether we should join it or not.
“The history demonstrates that no nation was able to live prosperously under the Russian rule, the same during the Russian empire and during the Soviet Union regime.”
History is changing, you know… Belarus is by far more developed country right now than Moldova. It has about the same economic level as Romania. So let’s just not follow dogma’s whether European or Communist ones.
December 1st, 2006 at 1:08 am
Mihai, I agree with you on the point about the long-term strategy. But that strategy shouldn’t be based upon a simple choice of wishing to be with Russia or with the EU…
I also prefer Moldova to make its choice in favour of EU. Not because I don’t like so much Russia. I was raised on russian culture and language, my relatives live there. However, I wish to see Moldova a Europe-centred country, and not just because “…the history demonstrates that no nation was able to live prosperously under the Russian rule”, not because of the possibilities to move easily through borders and economic help from Brussels, but because I (personally) share the principles and values that the European Union is based on.
And the values (and not some momentary economic benefits) should constitute the core of any strategy. And what is even more the people of Moldova must sincerely believe in those values (the thing that I don’t actually see today)…
December 1st, 2006 at 1:26 am
Serg, Belarus is developed just economically, the same as Turkmenistan. Both countries are developed due to their geographical location and the natural resources they posses.
I do not want Moldova to be like any of these two, rather I would love to see Moldova more like Estonia or Latvia.
After the Soviet Union collapse, the Baltic Sates started their growth in the same position as Moldova. There are many similarities between the Baltic States and Moldova: similar size, similar number of population, similar natural resources, more exactly lack of natural resources. Indeed, the Baltic States are geographically closer to EU. However, the main reason why they ascended so fast is the people’s decisive attitude. And in the beginning of the ‘90s they had salaries under the minimum expenses required for living.
In addition, each of the Baltic States is more developed than Romania and Belarus.
Finally, the economic development is not about political friendships, it is more about own efforts and strategy. Take a look on http://www.blog.moscovici.org/2006/12/01/bugetul-republicii-moldova (in Romanian). It is really interesting.
Alexei, I do not affirm Moldova must make its strategy based only upon the choice of wishing to be with any power such as European Union or Russia. Rather, I tend to see Moldova as a country whose society aspire toward true democratic values.
Totally agree with your point of view that “the values (and not some momentary economic benefits) should constitute the core of any strategy.”
December 1st, 2006 at 1:54 am
Guys, you have a nice strategic talk, but let’s not forget that strategy means nothing when there is bad tactics.
This year Moldova suffered big economic losses due to Russian ban on Moldovan exports and due to railway problems. Production fell by 10%, lots of people are out of work. And this IS the main problem of the country right now and it IS more important than EU aspirations and value-based strategies.
EU will not cover our losses and will not feed our people. Therefore I totally support President Voronin in his efforts to get relations with Russia back on track.
December 1st, 2006 at 12:15 pm
Serg,
The tactics someone uses are good only if they enforce the strategy. There is no good to be tactical if there is no well-defined strategy for development. Running from a master to another is not tactics.
Moldova is seeking for a better place in the international community, but cannot find this place because it does not know where to look for it.
December 3rd, 2006 at 10:19 am
Actually, the veto on Russia’s accession to WTO is one of the few things Moldova can negotiate with Russia. Otherwise Russia has a lot of blackmail capacity in what regards Moldova.
December 3rd, 2006 at 3:24 pm
paznicul, you are right about the veto. The last events lead Moldova to loose this last “tool” in relationship with Russia. Sad!